沉默成本謬誤
The sunk cost fallacy
這部電影簡直爛到爆！看了將近一小時後，我再也受不了了，於是輕聲的在老婆大人耳邊說：「走吧，我們還是回家算了。」想不到她竟然回答：「當然不要！這樣不就白白損失三十歐元的電影票嗎？」聽到這樣的回覆，我不禁反駁道：「這根本不是理由，你掉進『沉默成本謬誤』的迷思裡啦！」她聽了之後，相當不以為然的回我一句：「是啊！你總是三句不離思考錯誤」接著便像啞巴吃黃蓮似的，在嘴裡嘟嚷著「思考錯誤」……
This movie was suck! After seeing this
movie for an hour, I couldn’t bear anymore, so I whispered to my wife ”Go
home, let’s goes as it is.” Beyond my expectation, she answered “Of course not!
Do we lose 30€ like this?” I can’t help but retort upon her ”This is not
a reason, you are falling into the myth” The sunk cost fallacy”!!” After listening,
she was not to accept as correct and said” yes, you are always talking
about thinking mistake”, then she just like to be compelled to suffer in the silence
and whispered” thinking mistake……”
我的一位朋友常年飽受一段問題重重的孽緣所苦。這段孽緣的女主角總是一再劈腿，可是當她每回偷吃被逮，她又會聲淚俱下向我的朋友苦苦哀求，希望能再給她一個改過自新的機會。耐人尋味的是，儘管我朋友心知肚明跟這個女人繼續糾纏毫無任何意義，他卻總是一再心軟。有回我問他何苦要這樣作賤自己，他跟我解釋道：「這段感情我已經投下許多心血，就這麼讓它結束，或許是不對的吧？」還能說什麼，典型的沉沒成本謬誤！
One of my friends suffering in a
relationship, which full of questions, for many years. The heroine of this bad
romance are always tow-timer, but when busted, she will bag my friend with
tearful voice, hoped that he could forgave her and gave her the second chance.
Thought-provoking, although my friend knew that it couldn’t make any sense of
this relationship with the girl, he tended to say yes to whatever she asked. Once,
I asked him why would he made it so easy on himself, and he answered “I have
paid a lot in this relationship, it’s may wrong if I shut it down. ” What I can say, it’s a typical of the sunk cost fallacy!
無論在私生活還是公務方面，每個決定終歸是在某種不確定的環境下做成。我們所期盼的最終也許會心想事成，但也許不會。然而不管在什麼時刻，我們都可以就此離開原本規劃好的路徑，比如說當機立斷終止某項正在進行的計劃，並勇敢接受隨之而來的後果。
No matter in private life or in business,
every decision finally made from some uncarted environments. We all except that
may be successful, may be not. However, we can leave the path drawn up any
time, for example, shutting down a plan which is working on and accept the coming
consequence bravely.
這種在不確定環境下所做的權衡，其實是種理性的舉措。如此一來，沉沒成本謬誤便會應聲腰斬，尤其是在已經投入大量時間、金錢、精力或感情等情況下，效果更為顯著。
The trade-off made from the uncertain conditions
is a kind of rational behave actually. Thus, it will cutting the sunk cost
fallacy in two at the waist, and obviously especially when a lot of time,
money, stamina and emotion are throw in.
比方在某些情況裡，僅管就客觀角度看來，繼續經營下去根本毫無意義，可是已經投資下去的資金，這時就會變成我們繼續經營下去的理由。無奈的是，當投資金額越來越大時，沉沒成本也會跟著越來越多，如此反而會惡性循環地把我們跟原先正在進行的計劃綁得更緊。
Such as some circumstances, in objective,
it’s meaningless when keeping running. But the finance invested will become the
reason make us keeping carry on. However, the more finances, the more cost sunk.
Hence, it will tied us to the plan which is proceed in a vicious circle.
為什麼我們會有這麼不理性的行為呢？原因在於人類總是追求某種表面上的和諧穩定，有了和諧穩定，我們才能夠傳遞出信賴感。反覆無常對我們來說是件相當可怕的事。
Why do we act so irrationally? It’s cause
that people always seeking some kinds of harmonious and stable of the surface,
so that we can convey reliability. Fickleness is quite a terrible thing to us.
如果突然決定要把某個進行到一半的計畫喊卡，這時就會在我們身上引起某種反覆無常的衝突。我們甚至會後悔莫及的怨懟自己道：「早知如此，何必當初！」然而，繼續進行一個毫無意義的計劃，能夠延緩面對痛苦的現實，也能讓我們處在某種表面上的和諧穩定。
If we decide to stop the plan proceeding to
half suddenly, it will make some fickle conflict in our mind. We are going to regret
it and complain” I should know better! ” Nevertheless, keep going the
meaningless plan could put off the suffering reality, and making us stay harmonious
and stable outwardly.
「我們到現在都已經走那麼遠的路了……」、「我已經看了這本書那麼多頁了……」、「我念這個科系都已經兩年了……」從這些話裡不難看出，沉沒成本謬誤早已在我們腦海裡根深柢固。
“It’s been a long way so far…”、”I’ve already read so many pages of this book…”、”I’ve studied in this major for two years…” We can figure out easily that
the sunk cost fallacy is deeply ingrained in our brain.
為了完成某件事而持續加碼，可以基於其他很多好的理由，但千萬不要執著於這個爛理由：你已經投注許多在上頭！理性地做決定應該意味著：你可以忽視那些已經壓上去的成本。不管你已經投入了什麼，真正唯一該考慮的是當下，以及你所決定的未來！
文章節取自：思考的藝術
圖片來源：Marais # 06
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